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Epidemic could
skyrocket in Asia if it isn't dealt with now
Daniel
Sneider |
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| The Communist propaganda billboards
that used to loom over the streets of Hanoi, the capital of
Vietnam are largely gone. In their place, posters proclaim a
new message: a warning about becoming infected with HIV/AIDS. |
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| After ravaging sub-Saharan Africa,
the AIDS epidemic is now poised to sweep through Asia, home
to two-thirds of the world's population. Governments from Vietnam
to India have just begun to realize this virus could derail
the region's economic boom. |
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| That message was repeatedly communicated
by researchers and health officials who gathered recently in
nearby Bangkok, Thailand, for the 15th international AIDS conference. |
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| "HIV/AIDS is spreading through
Asia like termites in a house," said Dr. Nafiz Sadik, a
senior UN official. "It is invisible at first but catastrophic
in its impact. What is happening in Africa could happen in Asia
if we fail to act." |
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| Unfortunately, wishful thinking
has been the norm in Asia. |
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| If you look at the numbers one way, there seems to be a basis
for complacency. The standard index for measuring HIV infection
is the estimate of the adult population that has the virus --
more than 1 percent is considered an epidemic. On that basis,
HIV/AIDS in Asia doesn't come close to Africa. The worst hit
countries in Africa are places such as Botswana where more than
37 percent of adults have the virus, or South Africa, where
almost a quarter are infected. |
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| The worst case in Asia is Cambodia, where 2.6 percent of adults
are affected. Thailand, which faced an early outbreak of the
epidemic in the late 1980s, brought its infection rate down
to 1.5 percent. But the sheer size of Asian populations dramatically
changes those calculations. Take India, for example. The infection
rate is less than 1 percent, but with a population of more than
1 billion people, there are already about 5.2 million people
living with HIV making India second only to South Africa in
the number of HIV/AIDS cases in the world. |
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| Still, the last Indian government was in almost
complete denial about this. Until recently, it failed to alert
people to the epidemic. |
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| Congress leader Sonia Gandhi spoke at the Bangkok
conference, a signal that this government is willing to deal
with the issue. |
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| The Chinese government also refused to face the reality until
last year. Though it has a lower estimated infection rate, with
such a huge population, China's HIV population is already close
to 1 million and climbing fast. |
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| People who are more prone to infection belong to vulnerable
groups like sex workers, intravenous drug users, men who have
sex with men etc. But it surges when it is transmitted to the
general population. In Asia, the transmission belt is well known
-- it is the ubiquitous sex industry. |
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| The most effective way to prevent the spread of AIDS has been
to protect sex workers and their clients. Thailand adopted a
"100 percent condom use" campaign in the early 1990s
that not only dramatically dropped the infection rate but also
cut the number of men visiting sex workers by half. |
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| Spending on prevention in most of Asia, however, is still
too low. UN officials estimate that $1.5 billion a year is needed
but only $200 million has been spent. |
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| And it doesn't help when ideology gets in the way. The Bush
administration's catering to the Christian right bars funds
from going to programs that distribute condoms or clean needles
to drug users. It has left Vietnamese officials scratching their
heads about how to use newly announced American aid to combat
AIDS. |
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| The window of opportunity to prevent Asia from going down
the African road is still open, but not for long. If we fail
to act, people living with HIV/AIDS will be measured not in
the millions but in the tens of millions. |
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